Quick Answer
The answer is three-point estimating, the correct technique for accounting for uncertainty in activity duration estimates. This method explicitly addresses risk by calculating a weighted or simple average of three distinct estimates: the optimistic (best-case), most likely (realistic), and pessimistic (worst-case) durations. For a project involving new technology that could cause delays, the pessimistic estimate captures that potential risk range, making it ideal for modeling uncertainty through either a triangular or PERT (beta) distribution. On the CAPM exam, this question tests your understanding of the Estimate Activity Durations process in the Schedule Management knowledge area, often appearing as a scenario where historical data exists but new variables introduce unknowns. A common trap is choosing analogous estimating, which relies on past projects without adjusting for novel risks, or parametric estimating, which uses statistical relationships but not explicit uncertainty ranges. To remember this, think of the three-point estimating as your “three-sided safety net” for uncertainty: optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic cover all possible outcomes.
This CAPM practice question tests your understanding of predictive plan-based methodologies. Read the scenario carefully and evaluate each option against the stated constraints before committing to an answer. After answering, compare your reasoning against the explanation and wrong-answer breakdown below. Once you have made your selection, read the full explanation to reinforce the concept and understand why each distractor is designed to mislead on exam day.
A project manager is estimating activity durations for a software development project. The team has historical data from similar projects, but the current project involves new technology that could cause delays. Which estimating technique should the project manager use to account for uncertainty?
Parametric estimating
Why wrong: Uses statistical relationships, not uncertainty ranges.
Analogous estimating
Why wrong: Uses similar projects, less accurate.
Three-point estimating
Incorporates uncertainty via three values.
Bottom-up estimating
Why wrong: Detailed but does not handle uncertainty explicitly.
Answer choices
Answer the question above first, then reveal the full breakdown to understand why each option is right or wrong.
Correct answer & explanation
Three-point estimating
Three-point estimating (C) is correct because it explicitly accounts for uncertainty by using optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic estimates. The new technology introduces unknown risks, making the triangular or PERT distribution ideal for modeling the potential delay range.
Key principle: Answer the scenario, not the keyword: identify the specific constraint before choosing the most familiar-sounding option.
Answer analysis
For each option: why learners choose it and why it is or isn't the right answer here.
Parametric estimating
Why it's wrong here
Uses statistical relationships, not uncertainty ranges.
Analogous estimating
Why it's wrong here
Uses similar projects, less accurate.
Three-point estimating
Why this is correct
Incorporates uncertainty via three values.
Related concept
Read the scenario before looking for a memorised answer.
Bottom-up estimating
Why it's wrong here
Detailed but does not handle uncertainty explicitly.
Common exam traps
The trap here is that candidates often choose analogous estimating (B) because it seems quick and uses past data, but they miss that new technology invalidates the similarity assumption, making three-point estimating the correct choice for uncertainty.
Trap categories for this question
Similar concept trap
Uses similar projects, less accurate.
Detailed technical explanation
Three-point estimating uses the formula (O + 4M + P)/6 for PERT (Program Evaluation and Review Technique) or (O + M + P)/3 for triangular distribution, where O is optimistic, M is most likely, and P is pessimistic. In practice, the project manager would consult developers to define the pessimistic duration based on known risks of the new technology (e.g., integration delays, learning curve), ensuring the schedule buffer reflects realistic uncertainty.
Key takeaway
Answer the scenario, not the keyword: identify the specific constraint before choosing the most familiar-sounding option.
Real-world example
A practitioner preparing for the CAPM exam encounters this exact type of scenario on the job. The correct answer here is not the most general option — it is the best answer for the specific constraint described. Answer the scenario, not the keyword: identify the specific constraint before choosing the most familiar-sounding option. Real exam questions reward reading the full scenario before eliminating options, because the constraint defines which answer fits.
What to study next
Identify which exam domain this question belongs to, review the core concept, then practise similar questions from the same domain.
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FAQ
Predictive Plan-Based Methodologies — This question tests Predictive Plan-Based Methodologies — Read the scenario before looking for a memorised answer..
The correct answer is: Three-point estimating — Three-point estimating (C) is correct because it explicitly accounts for uncertainty by using optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic estimates. The new technology introduces unknown risks, making the triangular or PERT distribution ideal for modeling the potential delay range.
Identify which exam domain this question belongs to, review the core concept, then practise similar questions from the same domain.
Read the scenario before looking for a memorised answer.
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Last reviewed: Jun 11, 2026
This CAPM practice question is part of Courseiva's free PMI certification practice question bank. Courseiva provides original exam-style practice questions with explanations, topic-based practice, mock exams, readiness tracking, and study analytics to help learners prepare for the CAPM exam.
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