- A
97.5%
97.5% is the probability of completing at or below 2 standard deviations above the mean.
- B
95%
Why wrong: 95% is the probability within 2 standard deviations of the mean (both sides).
- C
84%
Why wrong: 84% corresponds to 1 standard deviation above the mean.
- D
68%
Why wrong: 68% is the probability within 1 standard deviation of the mean.
Question 703 of 892
PMP Process — Managing Technical Aspects Practice Question
This PMP practice question tests your understanding of process — managing technical aspects. Read the scenario carefully and evaluate each option against the stated constraints before committing to an answer. After answering, compare your reasoning against the explanation and wrong-answer breakdown below. Once you have made your selection, read the full explanation to reinforce the concept and understand why each distractor is designed to mislead on exam day.
A project has a critical path of 120 days with a standard deviation of 5 days. The project sponsor wants to know the probability of completing the project within 130 days. Using the normal distribution, what is the approximate probability?
Answer choices
Why each option matters
Answer the question above first, then reveal the full breakdown to understand why each option is right or wrong.
Correct answer & explanation
✓
97.5%
The critical path duration is 120 days with a standard deviation of 5 days. Completing within 130 days is 2 standard deviations above the mean (130 - 120 = 10, 10/5 = 2). In a normal distribution, approximately 95% of data falls within ±2 standard deviations, so the probability of being at or below +2σ is 50% + (95%/2) = 97.5%.
Key principle: Answer the scenario, not the keyword: identify the specific constraint before choosing the most familiar-sounding option.
Answer analysis
Option-by-option breakdown
For each option: why learners choose it and why it is or isn't the right answer here.
- ✓
97.5%
Why this is correct
97.5% is the probability of completing at or below 2 standard deviations above the mean.
Related concept
Read the scenario before looking for a memorised answer.
- ✗
95%
Why it's wrong here
95% is the probability within 2 standard deviations of the mean (both sides).
- ✗
84%
Why it's wrong here
84% corresponds to 1 standard deviation above the mean.
- ✗
68%
Why it's wrong here
68% is the probability within 1 standard deviation of the mean.
Common exam traps
Common exam trap: answer the scenario, not the keyword
The trap here is confusing the probability of completing within a range (e.g., ±2σ = 95%) with the cumulative probability up to a single upper limit (+2σ = 97.5%), leading candidates to incorrectly select 95% instead of 97.5%.
Detailed technical explanation
How to think about this question
In project scheduling, the normal distribution assumption for critical path duration relies on the Central Limit Theorem, where the sum of independent activity durations approximates normality even if individual activities are not normally distributed. The standard deviation of the critical path is the square root of the sum of variances of activities on the critical path. For a 2-sigma upper tail, the exact probability from the Z-table is 97.72%, but 97.5% is the commonly used approximation for PMP exam purposes.
KKey Concepts to Remember
- Read the scenario before looking for a memorised answer.
- Find the constraint that changes the correct option.
- Eliminate answers that are true in general but not in this case.
TExam Day Tips
- Watch for words such as best, first, most likely and least administrative effort.
- Review why wrong options are wrong, not only why the correct option is correct.
Key takeaway
Answer the scenario, not the keyword: identify the specific constraint before choosing the most familiar-sounding option.
Real-world example
How this comes up in practice
A practitioner preparing for the PMP exam encounters this exact type of scenario on the job. The correct answer here is not the most general option — it is the best answer for the specific constraint described. Answer the scenario, not the keyword: identify the specific constraint before choosing the most familiar-sounding option. Real exam questions reward reading the full scenario before eliminating options, because the constraint defines which answer fits.
What to study next
Got this wrong? Here's your next step.
Identify which exam domain this question belongs to, review the core concept, then practise similar questions from the same domain.
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Process — Managing Technical Aspects — study guide chapter
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FAQ
Questions learners often ask
What does this PMP question test?
Process — Managing Technical Aspects — This question tests Process — Managing Technical Aspects — Read the scenario before looking for a memorised answer..
What is the correct answer to this question?
The correct answer is: 97.5% — The critical path duration is 120 days with a standard deviation of 5 days. Completing within 130 days is 2 standard deviations above the mean (130 - 120 = 10, 10/5 = 2). In a normal distribution, approximately 95% of data falls within ±2 standard deviations, so the probability of being at or below +2σ is 50% + (95%/2) = 97.5%.
What should I do if I get this PMP question wrong?
Identify which exam domain this question belongs to, review the core concept, then practise similar questions from the same domain.
What is the key concept behind this question?
Read the scenario before looking for a memorised answer.
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Last reviewed: Jun 11, 2026
This PMP practice question is part of Courseiva's free PMI certification practice question bank. Courseiva provides original exam-style practice questions with explanations, topic-based practice, mock exams, readiness tracking, and study analytics to help learners prepare for the PMP exam.
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