CAPM Predictive Plan-Based Methodologies Practice Question
A project manager is estimating the duration of a task using parametric estimation. Historical data shows that a similar task took 10 hours per unit, and 50 units are required. The team's productivity is expected to be 20% slower due to new team members. What is the estimated duration?
Answer choices
Why each option matters
Answer the question above first, then reveal the full breakdown to understand why each option is right or wrong.
Correct answer & explanation
✓
600 hours
10 hours/unit * 50 units = 500 hours. With 20% slower productivity, the total hours = 500 * 1.2 = 600 hours. Option A (400 hours) is wrong because it uses a 20% reduction instead of increase. Option B (550 hours) is wrong because it uses a factor of 1.1 or incorrect calculation. Option C (500 hours) is wrong because it does not account for the 20% slowdown.
Answer analysis
Option-by-option breakdown
For each option: why learners choose it and why it is or isn't the right answer here.
- ✗
400 hours
Why it's wrong here
400 hours applies the 10-hour historical rate to all 50 units without adjusting for the 20% productivity loss, so it ignores the stem's stated slowdown. It is tempting because straightforward unit-rate multiplication is exactly what parametric estimation does when productivity is stable; with an experienced team and no learning curve, 50 × 10 would be right.
- ✗
550 hours
Why it's wrong here
Applying the 20% slowdown to the 500-hour base gives 600 hours (500 × 1.2), so 550 understates the productivity adjustment. It is tempting because it adds a round 50 hours, which looks like a neat 10% uplift, but parametric estimation requires multiplying the unit rate by the slowdown factor, not halving it.
- ✗
500 hours
Why it's wrong here
This ignores the 20% productivity slowdown entirely, giving only the unadjusted 10 × 50 base figure. It is tempting because the historical unit rate and quantity multiply cleanly, but the stem explicitly states new team members reduce productivity, so the estimate must be scaled by 1.2 to 600 hours.
- ✓
600 hours
Why this is correct
Parametric estimation multiplies the unit rate by quantity, then applies the productivity adjustment: 10 hours × 50 units = 500 hours, increased by 20% for slower new team members gives 500 × 1.2 = 600 hours. This satisfies the stem's stated productivity constraint.
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