CAPM Predictive Plan-Based Methodologies Practice Question
During the planning phase of a predictive project, the project manager is estimating costs. Which cost estimation technique uses historical data from similar projects?
⚠ Common exam trap
CAPM often tests the confusion between analogous and parametric estimating; candidates may pick parametric because it also uses historical data, but the key differentiator is that analogous uses analogy to similar projects, not statistical relationships.
Answer choices
Why each option matters
Answer the question above first, then reveal the full breakdown to understand why each option is right or wrong.
Correct answer & explanation
✓
Analogous estimating
Analogous estimating uses historical data from similar past projects to estimate costs for the current project. It is a top-down technique that relies on expert judgment and is typically used when there is limited detailed information, making it the correct answer for a technique based on similar projects.
Answer analysis
Option-by-option breakdown
For each option: why learners choose it and why it is or isn't the right answer here.
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Bottom-up estimating
Why it's wrong here
Bottom-up estimating aggregates work-package cost estimates from the lowest level upward, so it relies on the current project's WBS detail rather than historical data from comparable past projects. It is tempting because it yields the most accurate estimates when the scope is well defined, but analogous estimating is the technique that draws on prior similar projects.
- ✓
Analogous estimating
Why this is correct
Analogous estimating derives cost figures from the actual costs of comparable past projects, typically using top-down judgement. It suits early planning when detailed data is scarce, matching the stem's reference to historical data from similar projects.
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Three-point estimating
Why it's wrong here
Three-point estimating derives an expected value from optimistic, pessimistic and most likely durations or costs; it draws on expert judgement, not historical records from comparable past projects. It is tempting because it also produces a cost figure, and it would be correct when uncertainty ranges must be captured.
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Parametric estimating
Why it's wrong here
Parametric estimating multiplies a unit rate by a quantity, such as cost per square metre; it uses a statistical relationship rather than the actual historical cost data of similar completed projects. It is tempting because it sounds data-driven, and it would be correct when a reliable rate per unit exists.
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Last reviewed September 2026 · checked against the official PMI exam blueprint
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