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PK0-005 Practice Question: A project manager is using a quantitative…

A project manager is using a quantitative analysis technique that runs thousands of iterations of the project schedule to determine the probability of completing the project by a certain date. This technique uses probability distributions for activity durations. Which technique is being described?

⚠ Common exam trap

The trap is confusing Monte Carlo simulation with sensitivity analysis — both are quantitative risk techniques, but only Monte Carlo runs thousands of iterations with probability distributions to produce a completion-date probability, while sensitivity analysis varies one variable at a time.

Answer choices

Why each option matters

Answer the question above first, then reveal the full breakdown to understand why each option is right or wrong.

Correct answer & explanation

✓

Monte Carlo simulation

Monte Carlo simulation is a quantitative risk analysis technique that runs thousands (or tens of thousands) of iterations of a project schedule, each time sampling activity durations from defined probability distributions (e.g., triangular, beta, normal). The output is a probability distribution of possible completion dates, allowing the project manager to state the likelihood of finishing by a target date.

Answer analysis

Option-by-option breakdown

For each option: why learners choose it and why it is or isn't the right answer here.

  • ✗

    SWOT analysis

    Why it's wrong here

    SWOT analysis is a qualitative strategic planning exercise listing internal strengths and weaknesses against external opportunities and threats; it performs no iterations and assigns no probability distributions to activity durations. It is tempting because it also supports project planning, but it would be correct when assessing strategic position rather than quantifying schedule risk.

  • ✗

    Decision tree analysis

    Why it's wrong here

    Decision tree analysis evaluates discrete decision paths with assigned probabilities and expected monetary values, producing a single expected outcome rather than thousands of simulated schedule iterations. It is tempting because it also quantifies uncertainty, but it would be the right choice for comparing alternative courses of action, not for deriving a completion-date probability distribution.

  • ✗

    Sensitivity analysis

    Why it's wrong here

    Sensitivity analysis tests how variation in individual uncertain variables affects a single outcome, ranking which assumptions matter most; it does not run thousands of schedule iterations. It is tempting because it also uses probability ranges, and it would be correct when identifying which activity durations most influence the project finish date.

  • ✓

    Monte Carlo simulation

    Why this is correct

    Monte Carlo simulation repeatedly samples activity durations from their probability distributions, running thousands of schedule iterations to produce a distribution of possible completion dates. This yields the probability of finishing by a target date, exactly matching the stem's quantitative, iteration-based forecasting requirement rather than single-point estimates.

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Last reviewed September 2026 · checked against the official CompTIA exam blueprint

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