CAPM Predictive Plan-Based Methodologies Practice Question
A project manager is leading a predictive project to build a bridge. The project is in the execution phase, and the team has completed 40% of the work. The project manager wants to forecast the final project cost using earned value management. Which formula should be used to calculate the estimate at completion (EAC) when the current cost performance is expected to continue?
⚠ Common exam trap
The trap here is selecting the formula that assumes remaining work will be performed at the planned rate, which ignores the instruction that current cost performance is expected to continue.
Answer choices
Why each option matters
Answer the question above first, then reveal the full breakdown to understand why each option is right or wrong.
Correct answer & explanation
✓
EAC = BAC / CPI
When the current cost performance is expected to continue, the estimate at completion is budget at completion divided by the cost performance index. This reflects the assumption that the project will continue to spend at the same efficiency or inefficiency observed to date. The other formulas apply to different assumptions about future performance, such as remaining work at the planned rate or accounting for schedule performance.
Answer analysis
Option-by-option breakdown
For each option: why learners choose it and why it is or isn't the right answer here.
- ✗
EAC = AC + (BAC - EV)
Why it's wrong here
This formula calculates the estimate at completion when the remaining work is expected to be performed at the planned rate, regardless of past performance. It assumes that any cost variance to date is a one-time event and will not recur. In the scenario, the current cost performance is expected to continue, so this formula would understate or overstate the forecast.
- ✓
EAC = BAC / CPI
Why this is correct
When the current cost performance is expected to continue at the same rate, the estimate at completion is calculated as budget at completion divided by the cost performance index. This formula assumes that the efficiency or inefficiency observed to date will persist for the remainder of the project. It is the most common EAC formula used in earned value management for this scenario.
- ✗
EAC = AC + (BAC - EV) / (CPI x SPI)
Why it's wrong here
This formula is used when the project is experiencing both cost and schedule performance issues that are expected to continue, and the team must meet a specific deadline. It factors in both the cost performance index and the schedule performance index. The scenario only mentions that cost performance is expected to continue, not schedule performance, making this formula inappropriate.
- ✗
EAC = BAC - EV
Why it's wrong here
This formula does not exist in earned value management. It subtracts earned value from budget at completion, which yields neither an estimate at completion nor any standard EVM metric. Using it would produce a meaningless number. The correct approach when cost performance is expected to continue is to divide budget at completion by the cost performance index.
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Last reviewed September 2026 · checked against the official PMI exam blueprint
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