CAPM Predictive Plan-Based Methodologies Practice Question
A project manager is estimating activity durations for a new software development project. The manager has data from three similar previous projects, but the new project is slightly larger in scope. Which estimating technique is most appropriate given the available data?
⚠ Common exam trap
CAPM often tests the confusion between analogous and parametric estimating; candidates may pick parametric because it sounds more precise, but the key differentiator is the availability of historical data from similar projects, not a statistical relationship.
Answer choices
Why each option matters
Answer the question above first, then reveal the full breakdown to understand why each option is right or wrong.
Correct answer & explanation
✓
Analogous estimating
Analogous estimating uses historical data from similar past projects to estimate durations for the current project. Since the project manager has data from three similar projects and the new project is only slightly larger, analogous estimating is the most appropriate technique. It is quick, cost-effective, and relies on expert judgment and historical analogies.
Answer analysis
Option-by-option breakdown
For each option: why learners choose it and why it is or isn't the right answer here.
- ✓
Analogous estimating
Why this is correct
Analogous estimating uses duration data from comparable past projects to forecast the new one, which suits the limited historical data and slight scope difference. It is less accurate than parametric or three-point estimating but requires minimal detail.
- ✗
Parametric estimating
Why it's wrong here
Parametric estimating applies a unit rate multiplied by a quantity, requiring a measurable cost or duration driver such as lines of code or function points. The stem supplies three comparable completed projects, not a statistical rate, so analogous estimating using their actual durations scaled for scope is the fit.
- ✗
Three-point estimating
Why it's wrong here
Three-point estimating produces optimistic, pessimistic and most likely durations for a single activity, so it captures uncertainty rather than leveraging the three comparable historical projects. It would be the right choice when no analogous data exists and the team must quantify risk ranges from expert judgement alone.
- ✗
Bottom-up estimating
Why it's wrong here
Bottom-up estimating decomposes the project into work packages and sums individual estimates, which discards the three completed similar projects entirely. It suits novel or poorly understood work where no historical baseline exists, not a slightly larger variant of three well-documented predecessors.
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Written and reviewed by Johnson Ajibi, MSc IT Security
Senior Network & Security Engineer · founder of Courseiva
Last reviewed September 2026 · checked against the official PMI exam blueprint
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