CAPM Predictive Plan-Based Methodologies Practice Question
A project manager is executing a predictive project with a cost baseline of $500,000. At the end of the third month, the project has completed 40% of the work, and the actual cost incurred is $220,000. The project manager needs to forecast the total cost at completion. Which earned value management (EVM) estimate should the project manager use if the current cost performance is expected to continue?
⚠ Common exam trap
The trap here is selecting a formula that assumes atypical variances or calculates the remaining cost instead of the total forecasted cost, even though the scenario states that the current performance is expected to continue.
Answer choices
Why each option matters
Answer the question above first, then reveal the full breakdown to understand why each option is right or wrong.
Correct answer & explanation
✓
Estimate at completion (EAC) using the formula BAC / CPI
The correct forecast is the estimate at completion (EAC) calculated as BAC / CPI, because it assumes the current cost performance will continue. With EV = $200,000 and AC = $220,000, the CPI is approximately 0.909, yielding an EAC of about $550,000. This method is used when the project manager believes the existing cost efficiency trend will persist. Other formulas either assume atypical variances, calculate remaining cost, or measure required performance, none of which forecast total cost under the stated assumption.
Answer analysis
Option-by-option breakdown
For each option: why learners choose it and why it is or isn't the right answer here.
- ✗
To-complete performance index (TCPI) using the formula (BAC - EV) / (BAC - AC)
Why it's wrong here
The to-complete performance index (TCPI) measures the cost performance required to meet a specified budget target. It is not a forecast of total cost at completion. The project manager needs to forecast the total cost, not the efficiency needed to achieve a budget. Using TCPI would not answer the question of what the total cost will be if current performance continues.
- ✗
Estimate to complete (ETC) using the formula BAC - EV
Why it's wrong here
The formula BAC - EV calculates the estimate to complete (ETC), which is the expected cost to finish all remaining work. It does not forecast the total cost at completion. The project manager asked for the total cost at completion, which is the EAC, not the ETC. Using this formula would provide only the remaining cost, ignoring the actual costs already incurred and the current performance trend.
- ✗
Estimate at completion (EAC) using the formula AC + (BAC - EV)
Why it's wrong here
The formula AC + (BAC - EV) assumes that the remaining work will be performed at the planned rate, regardless of current performance. It is used when the current variances are considered atypical and not expected to continue. In this scenario, the project manager expects the current cost performance to continue, so this formula would understate the forecasted total cost. It does not account for the ongoing cost inefficiency.
- ✓
Estimate at completion (EAC) using the formula BAC / CPI
Why this is correct
The estimate at completion (EAC) using BAC / CPI assumes that the current cost performance will continue at the same rate for the remainder of the project. Here, CPI = EV / AC = (40% of $500,000) / $220,000 = $200,000 / $220,000 ≈ 0.909. EAC = $500,000 / 0.909 ≈ $550,000. This forecast is appropriate when the project manager expects the same cost efficiency trend to persist, making it the correct choice for the scenario.
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Written and reviewed by Johnson Ajibi, MSc IT Security
Senior Network & Security Engineer · founder of Courseiva
Last reviewed September 2026 · checked against the official PMI exam blueprint
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