An organization calculates the annualized loss expectancy (ALE) for a cyber attack scenario. The single loss expectancy (SLE) is $50,000 and the annualized rate of occurrence (ARO) is 2. What is the ALE?
Trap 1: $25,000
Dividing SLE by ARO produces $25,000, but ALE is SLE multiplied by ARO, giving $100,000. It is tempting because the two figures invite division, yet that operation yields a per-incident average, not the annualised expected loss the formula defines.
Trap 2: $50,000
Returning the SLE unchanged ignores the ARO of 2, so the annualised figure is understated; ALE is SLE multiplied by ARO, giving $100,000. It is tempting because SLE is the headline loss figure, yet ALE must aggregate expected occurrences across the year.
Trap 3: $200,000
Multiplying SLE by 4 rather than the stated ARO of 2 overstates the result; ALE is SLE ($50,000) times ARO (2), giving $100,000. It is tempting because larger products feel conservative, yet the calculation must use the given frequency exactly.
- A
$25,000
Why it fails: Dividing SLE by ARO produces $25,000, but ALE is SLE multiplied by ARO, giving $100,000. It is tempting because the two figures invite division, yet that operation yields a per-incident average, not the annualised expected loss the formula defines.
- B
$50,000
Why it fails: Returning the SLE unchanged ignores the ARO of 2, so the annualised figure is understated; ALE is SLE multiplied by ARO, giving $100,000. It is tempting because SLE is the headline loss figure, yet ALE must aggregate expected occurrences across the year.
- C
$200,000
Why it fails: Multiplying SLE by 4 rather than the stated ARO of 2 overstates the result; ALE is SLE ($50,000) times ARO (2), giving $100,000. It is tempting because larger products feel conservative, yet the calculation must use the given frequency exactly.
- D
$100,000
Annualized loss expectancy equals single loss expectancy multiplied by annualized rate of occurrence: $50,000 × 2 = $100,000. This quantifies the expected yearly loss for the scenario, giving risk practitioners the figure used to compare against the cost of proposed controls.