Quick Answer
The answer is historical incident data from industry reports. This is the best source for risk likelihood determination because it provides empirical, objective evidence of how frequently a specific threat has materialized in comparable environments, eliminating the bias of subjective opinion or isolated internal experience. On the CRISC exam, this concept tests your understanding of data-driven risk assessment versus qualitative guesswork; a common trap is choosing “expert judgment” or “financial loss data,” which measure impact rather than frequency. Remember that likelihood is about probability, not consequence—industry reports aggregate real-world occurrences across many organizations, giving you a statistically sound baseline. For the exam, think of it as “frequency over feeling”: when in doubt, look for the source that counts actual events, not the one that guesses or calculates cost. A quick memory tip: “Industry incidents = objective odds.”
This CRISC practice question tests your understanding of it risk assessment. Read the scenario carefully and evaluate each option against the stated constraints before committing to an answer. After answering, compare your reasoning against the explanation and wrong-answer breakdown below. Once you have made your selection, read the full explanation to reinforce the concept and understand why each distractor is designed to mislead on exam day.
During a risk assessment, a risk owner is unsure about the likelihood rating for a specific threat. Which of the following is the BEST source of information to determine the likelihood?
Clue words in this question
Noticing these words before you look at the options changes how you read each choice.
Clue: "best"
Why it matters: Signals that multiple options may be partially correct. Choose the option that most directly solves the exact problem described, not the one that sounds most complete.
Vendor documentation
Why wrong: May not reflect real-world incident frequency.
The risk owner's personal opinion
Why wrong: Subjective and not evidence-based.
The organization's financial statements
Why wrong: Irrelevant to threat likelihood.
Historical incident data from industry reports
Provides objective data on actual occurrences.
Answer choices
Answer the question above first, then reveal the full breakdown to understand why each option is right or wrong.
Correct answer & explanation
Historical incident data from industry reports
Historical incident data from industry reports provides empirical evidence of threat frequency and impact across similar environments, making it the most objective and reliable source for determining likelihood. Unlike subjective opinions or unrelated financial data, industry reports aggregate real-world occurrences, enabling a data-driven risk assessment that aligns with the organization's threat landscape.
Key principle: Answer the scenario, not the keyword: identify the specific constraint before choosing the most familiar-sounding option.
Answer analysis
For each option: why learners choose it and why it is or isn't the right answer here.
Vendor documentation
Why it's wrong here
May not reflect real-world incident frequency.
The risk owner's personal opinion
Why it's wrong here
Subjective and not evidence-based.
The organization's financial statements
Why it's wrong here
Irrelevant to threat likelihood.
Historical incident data from industry reports
Why this is correct
Provides objective data on actual occurrences.
Clue confirmation
The clue word "best" in the question point toward this answer.
Related concept
Read the scenario before looking for a memorised answer.
Common exam traps
ISACA often tests the misconception that the risk owner's personal experience or vendor claims are sufficient for likelihood determination, but the correct approach relies on objective, historical data from industry sources to avoid bias and ensure repeatable risk scoring.
Trap categories for this question
Real-world vs exam trap
May not reflect real-world incident frequency.
Detailed technical explanation
Likelihood rating in risk assessment is often derived from historical frequency data normalized over time (e.g., number of incidents per year) and contextualized by threat intelligence sources such as the Verizon Data Breach Investigations Report (DBIR) or the SANS Incident Response Survey. These reports categorize threats by industry, attack vector, and asset type, allowing risk owners to apply a statistical probability (e.g., 0.1 to 1.0) rather than a qualitative guess. In practice, a financial services firm might use industry reports to determine that phishing attacks have a 70% likelihood per year, while a manufacturing firm might see a 30% likelihood for ransomware, directly influencing control prioritization.
Key takeaway
Answer the scenario, not the keyword: identify the specific constraint before choosing the most familiar-sounding option.
Real-world example
A practitioner preparing for the CRISC exam encounters this exact type of scenario on the job. The correct answer here is not the most general option — it is the best answer for the specific constraint described. Answer the scenario, not the keyword: identify the specific constraint before choosing the most familiar-sounding option. Real exam questions reward reading the full scenario before eliminating options, because the constraint defines which answer fits.
What to study next
Identify which exam domain this question belongs to, review the core concept, then practise similar questions from the same domain.
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FAQ
IT Risk Assessment — This question tests IT Risk Assessment — Read the scenario before looking for a memorised answer..
The correct answer is: Historical incident data from industry reports — Historical incident data from industry reports provides empirical evidence of threat frequency and impact across similar environments, making it the most objective and reliable source for determining likelihood. Unlike subjective opinions or unrelated financial data, industry reports aggregate real-world occurrences, enabling a data-driven risk assessment that aligns with the organization's threat landscape.
Identify which exam domain this question belongs to, review the core concept, then practise similar questions from the same domain.
Yes — watch for: "best". Signals that multiple options may be partially correct. Choose the option that most directly solves the exact problem described, not the one that sounds most complete.
Read the scenario before looking for a memorised answer.
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Last reviewed: Jun 30, 2026
This CRISC practice question is part of Courseiva's free ISACA certification practice question bank. Courseiva provides original exam-style practice questions with explanations, topic-based practice, mock exams, readiness tracking, and study analytics to help learners prepare for the CRISC exam.
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