CAPM Predictive Plan-Based Methodologies Practice Question
A project manager is estimating activity durations for a software development project. The team has historical data from similar projects, but the current project involves new technology that could cause delays. Which estimating technique should the project manager use to account for uncertainty?
⚠ Common exam trap
Watch out — candidates often choose analogous estimating (B) because it seems quick and uses past data, but they miss that new technology invalidates the similarity assumption, making three-point estimating the correct choice for uncertainty.
Answer choices
Why each option matters
Answer the question above first, then reveal the full breakdown to understand why each option is right or wrong.
Correct answer & explanation
✓
Three-point estimating
Three-point estimating (C) is correct because it explicitly accounts for uncertainty by using optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic estimates. The new technology introduces unknown risks, making the triangular or PERT distribution ideal for modeling the potential delay range.
Answer analysis
Option-by-option breakdown
For each option: why learners choose it and why it is or isn't the right answer here.
- ✗
Parametric estimating
Why it's wrong here
Parametric estimating applies a statistical relationship between historical data and a parameter such as lines of code, yielding one deterministic duration with no uncertainty range. It tempts because historical data exists, and it would be correct for repetitive, well-understood work where the underlying relationship is stable.
- ✗
Analogous estimating
Why it's wrong here
Analogous estimating scales duration from a comparable past project using expert judgement, providing no mechanism to model the delay uncertainty from unfamiliar technology. It tempts because historical data from similar projects exists, and it would be correct for a rough early estimate when the scope closely matches prior work.
- ✓
Three-point estimating
Why this is correct
Three-point estimating uses optimistic, most likely and pessimistic durations to derive an expected value and range. This explicitly models the uncertainty introduced by unfamiliar technology, unlike single-point or analogous techniques that yield one deterministic figure.
- ✗
Bottom-up estimating
Why it's wrong here
Bottom-up estimating aggregates detailed work-package estimates, producing a single deterministic duration without any probabilistic range for the new-technology risk. It tempts because it is the most accurate technique when detailed scope is available, and would be correct once activities are decomposed and uncertainty is low.
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JA
Written by Johnson Ajibi, MSc IT Security
Senior Network & Security Engineer · founder of Courseiva
This CAPM practice question is part of Courseiva's free PMI certification practice question bank. Courseiva provides original exam-style practice questions with explanations, topic-based practice, mock exams, readiness tracking, and study analytics to help learners prepare for the CAPM exam.